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USDA: April cotton supply and demand estimation 1.5D PSF
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USDA: April cotton supply and demand estimation 1.5D PSF

Views:0     Author:Site Editor     Publish Time: 2019-04-12      Origin:Site

The 2018/19 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show lower consumption and higher ending stocks relative to last month. At 3.1 million bales, U.S. cotton consumption is now forecast to reach its lowest level since the 1890s. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.4 million bales, a 100,000-bale increase from both the previous 2018/19 estimate and from the current estimate for 2017/18. The season-average farm price is unchanged with a mid-point of 70 cents per pound.

Lower world consumption this month results in higher projected 2018/19 ending stocks, with little net change in the other components of the global balance sheet. World mill use is forecast about 400,000 bales lower this month. A 300,000-bale decline in Turkey—and smaller declines in the United States and Vietnam—more than offset smaller increases elsewhere. Lower imports for India, Turkey, and Vietnam are largely offset by an upward revision for China. Lower exports for India and Burkina Faso are largely offset by Australia and Turkey. Higher production for China is largely offset by a decline for Burkina Faso.

World ending stocks in 2018/19 are forecast about 360,000 bales higher this month, with an increase in China’s stocks more than offsetting a decline in stocks outside of China.

2018/19 Proj.Beginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic UseExportsLoss  /2 Ending Stocks
WorldMar81.14118.8942.18123.5942.180.3676.09
Apr81.05118.9342.09123.1842.090.3676.44
United StatesMar4.318.390.013.2150.24.3
Apr4.318.390.013.1150.24.4
Total ForeignMar76.84100.542.17120.3927.180.1671.79
Apr76.75100.5442.09120.0827.090.1672.04
  Major Exporters 4/Mar26.8455.012.3233.823.030.0227.32
Apr26.8454.792.0733.8522.830.0227
    Central Asia 5/Mar2.715.553/3.612.2602.39
Apr2.715.483/3.662.2602.26
    Afr. Fr. Zone 6/Mar1.835.583/0.145.4701.8
Apr1.835.383/0.145.3201.75
    S. Hemis 7/Mar12.8316.260.244.5710.420.0114.33
Apr12.8316.310.194.5710.670.0114.08
      AustraliaMar3.042.53/0.043.601.9
Apr3.042.53/0.043.801.7
      BrazilMar8.6611.750.13.56011.01
Apr8.6611.80.053.56011.01
    IndiaMar9.23271.624.84.508.53
Apr9.23271.424.84.208.63
  Major Importers 8/Mar47.942.4537.2682.52.790.1442.19
Apr47.8142.7437.482.052.910.1442.85
    MexicoMar0.661.730.851.950.60.030.66
Apr0.661.730.851.950.60.030.66
    ChinaMar38.0227.57.540.50.15032.37
Apr38.0227.75840.50.15033.12
    European Union 9/Mar0.271.690.70.741.550.050.31
Apr0.251.720.690.741.580.050.3
    TurkeyMar1.883.73.26.80.3501.63
Apr1.783.736.50.4501.53
    PakistanMar2.837.7310.60.130.032.78
Apr2.837.7310.60.130.032.78
    IndonesiaMar0.623/3.553.550.0100.61
Apr0.623/3.53.50.0100.61
    ThailandMar0.183/1.181.1500.030.18
Apr0.23/1.181.1500.030.2
    BangladeshMar1.860.148800.011.98
Apr1.860.148800.011.98
    VietnamMar1.193/7.47.3001.29
Apr1.193/7.37.2001.29

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.    2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

unit: Million 480-Pound Bales


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