April cotton yarn imports may increase 10.44% m-o-m to 201kt star shape polyester fiber

1. Imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment

Cotton yarn imports to China in Apr are estimated at 201kt, up 37.2% y-o-y and 10.44% m-o-m.

According to the shipments in overseas market in Mar, the arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Apr are predicted to hit the peak in the first half of 2019. The imports from Vietnam is estimated at 73kt, from India 54kt, from Pakistan 26kt, from Uzbekistan 13kt, from Indonesia 13kt, from Taiwan 8kt and from other regions and countries 14kt. With bullish expectation after Spring Festival holiday and the obviously widening gap between foreign and Chinese cotton price, cotton yarn imports of China from major origins all increased, except for Pakistan.

2. Traders' reflection

Note: Over 30 enterprises are surveyed, covering over 50% of cotton yarn imports.

Major traders and L/C issuing companies reflected higher arrivals of imported cotton yarn and the arrivals in Apr may be the highest in the first half of 2019.

3. Imported yarn stocks and supply and demand outlook in May

Stocks of imported cotton yarn in May increased largely. In particular, sales of traders moved slowly after mid-Apr. The stocks in China ports are predicted at 98.8kt, in Jiangsu and Zhejiang 39.5kt, in Guangdong 38.1kt and in North China 11.9kt.

In early May, the stocks reached high level and traders were burdened with high pressure. But later arrivals are predicted to reduce gradually and the cost will step upward. Ordering was cautious in China. In terms of the price, the costs of stocks in China ports were not high. Calculated with current spot price, traders can gain profit of 200-500yuan/mt. The payment will be intensive in May. If the market does not improve and tends weak, the profit of traders will be compressed further. The ordering for forward imported cotton yarn kept sluggish.