Operation forecast for the polyester market after National Day holiday

Operation forecast for the polyester market after National Day holiday
Feedstock prepared by downstream plants has been low now, and downstream plants may restock on Oct 8-10 to cover the pressing demand. Polyester filament yarn plants have saw bigger inventory pressure. Stocks of POY were moderate, while FDY and DTY units witnessed certain inventory burden. Market players held weak mindset. If there is no stimulus, PFY plants are of big possibility to cut price for promotion.

Downstream demand improved in late-Sep, but the profit and inventory pressure did not reduce apparently in twisting units and fabric mills. Twisting units and fabric mills are still expected to face pressure in terms of selling and profitability in later period, and controlling run rate may be the major solution. Run rate of twisting units and fabric mills is supposed to recover to the pre-holiday level but the continuity may be limited, which may reduce slowly in late-Oct when orders for the Double 11 and the Christmas will be tail-in work by that time.

For polyester plants, Oct is a special period affected by the National Day holiday and in expectation of weaker demand in later period. Selling pressure is expected to ascend obviously compared with Sep, price is anticipated to be in weak correction, cash flow is likely to shrink and stocks may accumulate. Generally, polyester industry is expected to start seeing accumulating contradiction in Oct, but it will take time to witness falling run rate. Polyester polymerization rate is not expected to reduce at least before late-Oct.